Dr. Haby,
Your calculations are very close to what we have discovered regarding costs. We're actually nearly identical to your second scenerio. What's really frustratiing is there is no way we can reliably profit on round bales in our area due to the local pricing as several have stated earlier. This is why we're moving away from making as many rounds, and going to more squares. The present market in this area will usually only let us get about $100/t on rounds, but squares will let us double that at least. Just makes little to no sense, because it's the same hay, from the same field, given the same care and feeding. As a result, we're more than doubling our storage capacity now, and will only plan on rounding enough to fill requests. I should have listened to my old cousins advice from years ago, ("build enough barn!"). Instead I lent too much credence to local advice and jumped into the round bale market too. I enjoy making round bales, but not enough to keep losing money at it!
JD3430,
In our area a typical price would be about $40/bale, but then again, if your making as good of hay as you state, that's NOT a fair price. Roughly you should be charging about double that for it to be fair. Fair in my opinion is a price where the seller can make a smidgen of profit, and the buyer gets a good value for his/her dollar.
Regards,
Steve