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Gourmet Horse Hay Producer
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Today I got word from both of my fertilizer suppliers that P and K are going nuts, are expected to continue to do so price wise and shortages/availability issues are being predicted for spring 2022. Oh, swell, just what we need in the hay business, input mayhem. Between fertilizer and seed and probable fuel in the next year it's beginning to look like 10$ a bale for prime grass hay next hay season just to keep up with this year on net revenue.
 

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Yeah. I hated to go up this year but may be doing the same next year. The bad thing is most customers don’t have a clue what our inputs are. They look puzzled when you start telling them about the price of inputs. I’m buying nitrogen now for next year. It’s all a gamble. I’m betting the price goes up. I may be wrong . Only time will tell.
 

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Yeah. I hated to go up this year but may be doing the same next year. The bad thing is most customers don’t have a clue what our inputs are. They look puzzled when you start telling them about the price of inputs. I’m buying nitrogen now for next year. It’s all a gamble. I’m betting the price goes up. I may be wrong . Only time will tell.
Just curious....are you buying it bagged. If not how are you storing it?
 

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I better go to WalMart for a pencil sharpener... going to have to get creative to make this math work

my father-in-law raises grain and booked fert/chem for spring... got roughly half as much product for the same $$ as last yr ..co-op won’t book anhydrous yet bc they don’t know how high it will be ... Im curious to see the price of bean/corn seed.. grain prices jumped last yr AFTER most guys booked their seed for 2021 ...2020 that bag of seed produced $3 corn but 2021 that same bag gets you $5+ corn.. doesn’t matter what other inputs are doing it’s too much upside for the seed companies to miss out on.. they are going to get theirs next
 

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Gourmet Horse Hay Producer
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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
I’ve decided to grow weeds, maybe with a mix of autumn olive and multiflora rose which grow on our farm by the tons per acre with zero inputs and no herbicide requirements...:cool:
You forgot to include your goat harvesters
 
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Gourmet Horse Hay Producer
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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Pay now, take delivery in spring.
Here, when you prepay you get paltry interest and the cost is what it is when you get it delivered-no bargain
 

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Gourmet Horse Hay Producer
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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Quote for this week : 0-60-150 spread is 156/ ac
 

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Hayman you ought to add that to your Christmas list (I already did)..See if I can get Santa to pay for it. I have a birthday next spring too. Oh Grandma!!!
 

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Gourmet Horse Hay Producer
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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Well if you get ashes from Santa, that contributes to the K needed😂
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
I got another quote at $140/ac so there is obviously some situational flexibility among providers. That’s a lot of savings but still way higher than two years ago
 

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We always prepay our fertilizer by year end. My supplier said that I’d better plan on the fertilizer bill being roughly double 2021. Which is nuts. I haven’t used poultry litter in a couple years and have never used it on all acres in any one year. But as of right now that’s my plan for 2022. The first loads started arriving today to stockpile for spreading over winter. I’m not paying $150-200/acre for commercial fertilizer for cow hay. Hopefully it moderates some over the next year for 2023 purchases.
 

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From my accountant because I asked what he had been hearing. Everybody that can is prepaying worried about next years cost. Except one he said has heard it will stabilize this winter and go down some. He will not prepay on any this year.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Spreading my p and k this morning. October spreading was always recommended by Va Tech anyway and I have hay checks coming to cover.
 
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I talked to my COOP today and they said it's anybody's guess on what prices will do...at least in my area. They don't see them going down yet, but see nothing indicating they'll increase necessarily either. They did mention that it always seems that when the price of corn and beans goes up, the price of fertilizer does too.

MAP is $900/ton now, was $650 in the spring ouch. It was high in the spring.

Potash is $820/ton now, was $420 in the spring. Ouuuuuuuuch.

If I were a betting man, I would bet on the trend going up. I might play it safe and just do half of what I need now. Then I'm not completely screwed if prices go up or down in the spring.
 

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Raise premium cool season grass for hay in SE Minnesota. Took 35 acres out of production this year and put into CRP. Penciled it out. Because of higher input costs. The drought. And not getting any younger. While we did make a very small amount of money. Its not worth the time. Still have plenty of hay ground. What has worked well for us is that we have a few acres in warm season grasses. It saved us with the drought the last couple of years. A lot of our hay ended up getting trucked to areas even drier than we are.

We have never had a problem selling the hay even as we raise prices. It just sucks when the mill can get what ever price they wish and blame it on COVID.
 

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If I continue using the same fertilizer rate as past years I would have almost $4.00 In each small square bale in just fertilizer. Something going to haft to change I don’t think people are going to pay 12.00-15.00 a bale for small squares. Not looking good for the farmer.
 
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