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Pent up demands


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#1 Markwright

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Posted 04 April 2020 - 08:55 PM

Pent up demands for goods, products and services is very close at hand now.

Spring and warm temps kills off flu And it's now spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

The economy and look of things will be 1000% better by Mid May.

Expect a $30cwt up for fat cattle before June.
Say to the $145cwt level... End if May into June.

Don't forget to mark em out.

#2 IHCman

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Posted 04 April 2020 - 09:22 PM

I like your optimisum but I don't believe warm weather is going to kill off this novel coronavirus. To many countries in much warmer climates than us are having outbreaks.


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#3 swmnhay

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 04:42 AM

That’s pretty optimistic!

Reality is cattle are going to get backed up with plants closing because of sick workers.One plant shut down from a fire etc is devastating to the cattle market as we have seen in the past.Imagine if a few plants get shut down!!!!

Look what’s happened the last few weeks,boxed meat price went up and live market went down with increased demand at grocery stores.Now the orders are not coming in from resteraunts so boxed price will fall on less demand.

Heard some info that some large feeedlots are changing rations to delay cattle to market hopping to get past the corona peak.

Hopefully I’m wrong but I think things will get very ugly before they get better.
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#4 swmnhay

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 05:53 AM

So it begins.Processors not buying.

http://www.decorahsalescommission.com/

#5 carcajou

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 09:36 AM

That’s pretty optimistic!

Reality is cattle are going to get backed up with plants closing because of sick workers.One plant shut down from a fire etc is devastating to the cattle market as we have seen in the past.Imagine if a few plants get shut down!!!!

Look what’s happened the last few weeks,boxed meat price went up and live market went down with increased demand at grocery stores.Now the orders are not coming in from resteraunts so boxed price will fall on less demand.

Heard some info that some large feeedlots are changing rations to delay cattle to market hopping to get past the corona peak.

Hopefully I’m wrong but I think things will get very ugly before they get better.

I'm thinking the same way.   The Easter lamb market sure took a hit.   I'm thinking of buying bulls for my backgrounded heifers,  might have to stretch this out another year just to avoid taking a loss.  Packers will make out like bandits just like when BSE hit,  and the yearling and fat market might tank through the whole summer.   Some time there is no rhyme nor reason to the direction a market goes.



#6 Markwright

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 11:33 AM

In china, corona has hit the suppression phase.

No new cases some weeks and/or 1 to 5 new cases others.

Beef exports are Up 18% over last year.... Bet China buys an unbelievable amount of USA beef now.

#7 carcajou

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 12:23 PM

In china, corona has hit the suppression phase.

No new cases some weeks and/or 1 to 5 new cases others.

Beef exports are Up 18% over last year.... Bet China buys an unbelievable amount of USA beef now.

You could be right,  but that won't matter if packers don't pay up.   I was very optimistic in January, now i'm unsure like most.


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#8 JD3430

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 01:54 PM

In china, corona has hit the suppression phase.

No new cases some weeks and/or 1 to 5 new cases others.

Beef exports are Up 18% over last year.... Bet China buys an unbelievable amount of USA beef now.

Ever ask yourself why they buy so much USA beef?



#9 Markwright

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 02:40 PM

They have not bought much usa beef in the past.

This last trade deal made....theyre supposed to buy quite a bit of USA agri stuff.. Well see.

Their pork supply is Smithfield which China owns.

I figure they'll just add some higher quality USA beef to their protien needs.

#10 JD3430

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Posted 05 April 2020 - 06:11 PM

I bet it’s because President Trump (finally a president with a big enough pair)
used his power of persuasion to get them to buy American beef and pork via a new trade deal.
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#11 PaMike

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Posted 06 April 2020 - 06:40 AM

So it begins.Processors not buying.

http://www.decorahsalescommission.com/

Large sale barn in PA also said they have no buyers for todays sale...



#12 r82230

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Posted 06 April 2020 - 09:05 AM

Heard some info that some large feeedlots are changing rations to delay cattle to market hopping to get past the corona peak.

We got changes in rations here (both beef and dairy) because of reduction of DDG, seems ethanol is not completive with cheap oil prices.  Surely, won't be helping the corn prices either I do believe. :(

 

Larry



#13 swmnhay

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Posted 06 April 2020 - 09:23 AM

We got changes in rations here (both beef and dairy) because of reduction of DDG, seems ethanol is not completive with cheap oil prices.  Surely, won't be helping the corn prices either I do believe. :(

 

Larry

Ethanol plants dropped basis on corn .30 in one day here



#14 somedevildawg

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Posted 08 April 2020 - 08:27 PM

Sale barn here is closed until further notice.....they move quite a bit thru. The second largest in Georgia....

#15 somedevildawg

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Posted 08 April 2020 - 08:28 PM

6k head a day dairy here is dumping milk at rampant rates....

#16 somedevildawg

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Posted 08 April 2020 - 08:32 PM

Cotton hasn’t budged an inch....wonder what those masks are made of....if it was the fuel industry it would be $3 a pound right now instead of .62.
Fuel industry is taking a huge hit, China Virus be damned.....bought dyed diesel yesterday for $1.57

#17 haybaler101

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Posted 08 April 2020 - 09:15 PM

Turkey integrator I grow for is reducing poult placements 10%. Too much meat.



#18 PaMike

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Posted 08 April 2020 - 09:20 PM

I dont understand it. Too much meat yet I just sold some steers tongiht to a guy in northern PA who is butchering 2 steers a week to sell quarters and halves because the consumer cant find beef in the local grocery isle...

Nothing in this whole thing right now makes sense..

 

Turkey integrator I grow for is reducing poult placements 10%. Too much meat.



#19 carcajou

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Posted 08 April 2020 - 09:52 PM

Sale barn here is closed until further notice.....they move quite a bit thru. The second largest in Georgia....

Hey Dawg!   Great to see you back on Haytalk.  Drop me a pm and fill me in on how life's been treating you.   Ray



#20 Farmerbrown2

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Posted 08 April 2020 - 10:06 PM

It doesn’t make sense here either. Wife went to Giant grocery store and Walmart they where out of margarine and butter pretty much. Not much meat of any kind in coolers . Ice cream cooler only has odd ball flavors good stuff gets cleaned out quickly. The two local butcher shops are swamped with people daily selling more then ever. Flour is very hard to find also sometimes they have bread flour but not all purpose.




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